The State of the Market – Summer 2024
Summer is on our doorstep and the promise of festivity and relaxation is just around the corner as we count the days until Christmas and the end of 2024.
But what exactly does that mean for the property market as we round out this year and look towards the next? In this report, we’ll take a look at the current state of the market, and offer a bit of a preview of what’s likely to be ahead for summer 2024/25.
Traditional summer trends
As spring concludes and we head into summer a couple of trends tend to occur in Australia’s property market.
Typically, listing volumes stay strong until the end of November as the spring selling season comes to a close before gradually declining during December in the lead-up to Christmas.
Christmas and New Year are then traditionally quiet across the property market with sellers typically delaying bringing their property to market until late January when there’s renewed enthusiasm in the market.
From there, CoreLogic notes “new listings normally increase significantly in late January through to late March, with a second wind in the weeks leading up to Easter”.
Source: CoreLogic
Now that’s the typical trend, but what exactly are we seeing as we approach summer 2024?
Housing values
According to the latest data from CoreLogic, the Australian residential real estate is collectively valued at $11.1 Trillion, which marks a milestone high.
In terms of national home values, they are also on the rise, with CoreLogic’s most recent index indicating home values increased 0.3 per cent in October in what was the 21st consecutive month of growth.
It brings the value increase to 0.9 per cent over the three months to October, and 6 per cent over 12 months.
That said, it’s not an even playing field, with some specific segments of the market rising while other areas record minor decreases.
“Home value growth continues to be skewed to the more affordable end of the market with the most affordable 25 per cent of Adelaide (5.5 per cent), Perth (5.5 per cent) and Brisbane (3.9 per cent) rising the fastest,” CoreLogic notes.
“Meanwhile, home values in Darwin’s (-2.1 per cent), Melbourne’s (-1.2 per cent), Sydney’s (-0.9 per cent) upper quartile market has seen some of the largest declines over the quarter.”
Source: CoreLogic Home Value Index, released Nov 1, 2024
Supply and demand
In terms of sales, supply and demand, CoreLogic notes there were 522,401 property sales nationally in the 12 months to October 2024.
That’s 9.2 per cent higher than the same period to October 2023.
Source: CoreLogic
Meanwhile, there were 45,155 new listings in October, which was 1.3 per cent higher than the same time last year and 0.8 per cent above the historic five-year average.
“Total listings have continued to trend higher over spring, with the recent flow of new stock taking total listings to 155,875 in the four weeks to 3 November 2024,” CoreLogic states.
With more stock on the market, the length of time it takes to sell has also increased slightly.
CoreLogic reports days on market increased to 33 days in the three months to October, up from 27 days this time last year.
“Most capitals are now recording longer days on market compared to this time last year, with rising advertised stock levels providing more choice and less urgency for buyers,” they state.
However, vendors discounting is slightly lower than the same period in 2023, with the median level vendor discounting rate coming in at-3.6 per cent nationally over the October quarter.
Auctions
As always, auctions paint an interesting picture of what’s occurring on the ground in terms of supply and sales.
In the week ending 24 November, 2625 capital city homes were scheduled for auction, which was down from 2898 the week prior and 2949 in the same week last year.
Meanwhile, last week’s clearance rate was below the 60 per cent mark for the fifth consecutive week at 57.3.
As a comparison, 62.4 per cent of reported auctions were successful in the same period last year.
What’s the takeaway?
There are several factors impacting the current property market, including:
- Stable interest rates (4.5 per cent) which provide potential buyers with greater certainty
- Overall economic stability, including jobs growth and wage increases
- Government initiatives for first time buyers
Meanwhile, price growth is slowing, listing volumes have increased and sales volumes remain high but appear to be showing signs of a slight decline, with days on market also on the rise.
All-in-all it equates to a more balanced market that still offers sellers great opportunity, yet also provides hope to home buyers seeking to secure a property.
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